Leading to ICPD30 No 2: Extracts from UNECE Regional Report on ICPD PoA: demographic and social context

(Paras 1-8)

Extracts from the United Nations Commission for Europe Report on the implementation of the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development (ECE/AC.32/2023/3) is now available. It provides detailed information on progress and obstacles encountered since the last review in 2018 and highlights achievements and setbacks in population and development outcomes and identifies areas where accelerated efforts are required, taking into account the evolving demographic, social and economic realities in the region. The review focuses on the three thematic priorities that were formulated in the 2013 Chair’s Summary, namely population dynamics and sustainable development; families, sexual and reproductive health over the life course; and inequalities, social inclusion, and rights. These three topics, which will be included in follow-up postings, will form the basis for the thematic sessions during the Regional Conference.

II         The demographic and socioeconomic context

The total population of the UNECE region in 2023 is an estimated 1.3 billion, showing an increase of 160 million since 1994, predominantly in 38 of the 56 countries. An additional 40 million people are expected to be added by 2050. The largest increases have taken place in Central Asia and Israel, where total fertility is still above replacement level, and in Luxembourg and Cyprus where increases grew, despite low total fertility, as a result of high net migration rates. The largest population declines, because of low fertility coupled with negative net migration, occurred in Eastern and South-Eastern Europe. It is projected that populations will decrease in half of the countries in the region between 2023 and 2030.

The average total fertility rates for the region is estimated at 1.69 children per woman of reproductive age, a significant decrease from 1.83 in 2015, with fertility rates below 1.5 children per woman of reproductive age in 19 countries. Delaying childbearing has continued, with the mean age at 29.7 in 2023. Life expectancy at birth is now estimated at 76.2 years for men and 82 years for women, both increased since 2015 and the numbers of people over 65 and older in 2023 comprise 17.6 percent of the total UNECE population – exceeding 20 percent in 24 countries. In seven UNECE countries the share of older people is below 10 percent, of which only 5 are projected not to reach this threshold by 2030.

Population growth and age structures in general are impacted by international migration in ECE countries to ‘varying degrees’. Net migration is positive in the region although there has been a sharp decline since the Syrian refugee crisis in 2015. At the same time countries in Central Asia, most of the Balkan and South Caucus regions and Bulgaria, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Türkiye and Ukraine have has negative migration. Of the remaining countries, the largest inflows since 2015 have been in the USA, the Russian Federation and Germany. Since 2022, the war in Ukraine has meant a significant increase in refugees in the European Union (EU) and other parts of the region.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused major disruptions in the socioeconomic development of the region, together with the war in Ukraine and other crises, and rising inflation and cost-of-living in many countries. COVID-19 disrupted education, health and social care services, having an immediate and continuing longer-term impact on social development outcomes in the region. It particularly affected disadvantaged and marginalized groups, including women and girls. Economically, while the gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a steady but decelerating rate of about 2.5 per cent annually, there were severe GDP contractions in nearly all countries in the region in 2020. Of these, about half were able to bring their output back to pre-pandemic levels in 2021, although growth slowed again in 2022 because of rising inflationary pressures and unresolved supply chain disruptions. Tensions in the commodity markets, particularly food and energy; heightened uncertainty; and a severely depressed economic outlook were exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.

The COVID-19 pandemic negatively affected poverty reduction efforts, with an increase in the share of people at risk of poverty and social exclusion, which has remained above pre-pandemic levels. Earlier gains in poverty reduction have been reversed in countries with “more precarious social support systems”, while gradual improvements have not yet lead to a return to previous levels.

III        Key findings

An analysis of available data shows “overall improvements in outcomes in most of the priority areas identified in the 2013 Chair’s Summary”, although progress has been uneven both across the region and within countries. The recent setbacks in such areas as education and human capital; health; and protection of vulnerable groups are concerning and “multiple and overlapping forms of  inequality and discrimination continue to impede individuals from realising their full potential”, even in countries that have recorded the greatest progress. And, although evidence is not available for all areas and indicators, what is available points to “exacerbated inequalities and recent disruptions in several areas of the ICPD PoA”.